Labor Market Recap May 2023: Renormalization
The data from the May labor market shows continued renormalization of the labor market, with strong employment, continued slowing of wage growth, and reduced churn.
The data from the May labor market shows continued renormalization of the labor market, with strong employment, continued slowing of wage growth, and reduced churn.
We are now at the point where many labor market utilization numbers—unemployment, employment, participation, full-time employment—are beyond pre-pandemic levels. We shouldn’t treat 2019 as a goal to return to; new highs are both possible and desirable.
What the data tell us to expect this Friday — softer nonfarm payroll growth, a higher unemployment rate and a potential for permanent job losers to rise.
In our labor market recap for March 2023, I described the state of the labor market as “a goldilocks labor market, with strong employment, increasing labor supply, and...