CPI
93 postsMisled by the Phillips Curve: How Inflation Predictions Went Wrong
In a recent Barron’s article, I examined why last year’s predictions that fighting inflation would require an increase in the unemployment rate went so wrong. The flaws in these predictions can be traced back to three ideas: first, that vacancies are a good measure of labor market tightness; second
July Core-Cast Post-CPI: More Good News Ahead Of Schedule - Yes, It's Not Far-Fetched For Core PCE To Be Near 2% Next Summer
Core-Cast is our nowcasting model to track the Fed's preferred inflation gauges before and through their release date. The heatmaps below give a comprehensive view of...
July Inflation Preview - Used Car Downside Can Hasten The Path To 2% Core PCE Outcomes
This preview was originally released on Monday to Premium Donors. If you would like to get the first look at this kind of content, please feel free to...
