Managing The Endogenous Slowdown: Transitioning From A Rapid Recovery To Non-Inflationary Growth
A CPI pre-read, wherein we argue the Fed should be calibrating its tightening efforts to what current conditions are indicating.
CPI
96 postsFeb CPI Preview - A Regime Shift For Headline And Core Inflation
Journalists can pretty much pre-write their headlines given the spike in oil prices. Year-over-year headline inflation readings are set to make new highs, potentially breaching 8% based on...
Calendar Year Price Revisions Skew Risks To The Upside in January, But The Balance of Risks May Shift Soon After
January is always a high-variance month for inflation readings and especially so for this January. We have been flagging the dynamics that were likely to grease the runway...
Planes, Constraints, and Automobiles: What to Look For in a Hot November CPI Print
It is key for commentators and policymakers to bear in mind that "transitory vs. persistent" is not the same debate as "narrow vs. broad-based."
QE Magic, Used Cars, and Omicron: Tapering While Preserving Optionality
The policy mistake worth worrying about isn’t the speed of taper per se; it's the signal that taper sends about the timing of liftoff in interest rate policy.
