Core Inflation

191 posts

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April 19, 2023 by Skanda Amarnath — 4 min read

Mid-April State Space: All Still To Play For

State Space Macro and Markets Monetary Policy Labor Markets Growth Expectations Inflation Expectations Core Inflation Inflation Wages Fed Policy Federal Reserve Fed Expectations

Causal Theme: By the Fed's "Core Services Ex Housing" Logic, The Fed's Inflation Narrative Is Due For Revision

Skanda Amarnath — 2 min read

Summary: If we focus on the domestic labor that contributes to "Core Services Ex Housing PCE" output, we see that wage growth is no longer looking...

Core Inflation Core Services Ex Housing Inflation Wages Monetary Policy Fed Policy Federal Reserve Labor Markets

March Core-Cast Post-CPI & PPI: Revisions Drive Year-over-Year Upside While Showing A Slower February & March

Skanda Amarnath — 6 min read

Core PCE Core Inflation Inflation Core-Cast Core Services Ex Housing Nowcast Data Recap Monetary Policy

Paid-members

March Core-Cast Post-CPI & PPI: Revisions Drive Year-over-Year Upside While Showing A Slower February & March

Skanda Amarnath — 6 min read

Core PCE Core Inflation Inflation Core-Cast Core Services Ex Housing Nowcast Data Recap Monetary Policy

March Core-Cast Post-CPI & PPI: Revisions Drive Year-over-Year Upside While Showing A Slower February & March

Skanda Amarnath — 1 min read

Note: This post has been revised to reflect some updating issues we previously had. Core-Cast is our nowcasting model to track the Fed's preferred inflation gauges...

Core PCE Core Inflation Inflation Core Services Ex Housing Core-Cast Nowcast Data Recap Monetary Policy

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