Core Inflation

February 12, 2024 by Skanda Amarnath — 8 min read

January Inflation Preview: High Stakes Data Releases With Fat Tails On Both Sides

Our inflation previews are typically released to the public with a delay relative to what we provide to our exclusive High Frequency Descriptive Analysis (HFDA) distribution subscribers. The release of the revised seasonal factors led to the idiosyncratic delay in making this...

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January Inflation Preview: High Stakes Data Releases With Fat Tails On Both Sides

Skanda Amarnath — 8 min read

Core-Cast Core Inflation Core PCE Core Services Ex Housing CPI Preview Systematic Monitors Data Inflation Fed Policy

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Core-Cast CPI Seasonal Factor Revisions: Marginally Stronger Q4 Opens More Downside Risk For January

Skanda Amarnath — 4 min read

Core-Cast Core Inflation Core PCE Core Services Ex Housing Inflation CPI PCE Systematic Monitors Nowcast Data

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Note: The CPI Seasonal Factor Revisions Might Stoke Overreaction, But Our Views Will Be Less Changed

Skanda Amarnath — 1 min read

Core Inflation Core PCE Inflation CPI PCE Core-Cast Preview Data

December Core-Cast Post-PCE: Nowcasted Progress Confirmed. The Path To A March Cut Becomes Clearer To The Public And Hinges On Data In February

Skanda Amarnath — 5 min read

Core-Cast is our nowcasting model to track the Fed's preferred inflation gauges before and through their release date. The heatmaps below give a comprehensive view of...

Core-Cast Core Inflation Core PCE Core Services Ex Housing PCE Recap Inflation Federal Reserve Fed Policy Systematic Monitors

January Inflation Preview: High Stakes Data Releases With Fat Tails On Both Sides

January Inflation Preview: High Stakes Data Releases With Fat Tails On Both Sides

Core-Cast CPI Seasonal Factor Revisions: Marginally Stronger Q4 Opens More Downside Risk For January

Note: The CPI Seasonal Factor Revisions Might Stoke Overreaction, But Our Views Will Be Less Changed

December Core-Cast Post-PCE: Nowcasted Progress Confirmed. The Path To A March Cut Becomes Clearer To The Public And Hinges On Data In February

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