Core Inflation

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February 8, 2024 by Skanda Amarnath — 1 min read

Note: The CPI Seasonal Factor Revisions Might Stoke Overreaction, But Our Views Will Be Less Changed

December Core-Cast Post-PCE: Nowcasted Progress Confirmed. The Path To A March Cut Becomes Clearer To The Public And Hinges On Data In February

Skanda Amarnath — 5 min read

Core-Cast is our nowcasting model to track the Fed's preferred inflation gauges before and through their release date. The heatmaps below give a comprehensive view of...

Core-Cast Core Inflation Core PCE Core Services Ex Housing PCE Recap Inflation Federal Reserve Fed Policy Systematic Monitors

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December Core-Cast Post-GDP: H2 Revisions Should Drag Down Core PCE To A 2 Handle Year-over-Year (Condensed)

Skanda Amarnath — 1 min read

Core-Cast Core Inflation Core PCE Core Services Ex Housing GDP Inflation Systematic Monitors Nowcast Data Recap

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December Core-Cast Post-PPI: Shrugging Off The CPI Setback. A March Cut Re-Emerges As A Solid Base-Case

Skanda Amarnath — 4 min read

Core-Cast Core Inflation Core PCE Core Services Ex Housing Inflation Systematic Monitors Nowcast PPI Recap Monetary Policy

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December Core-Cast Post-CPI: A Marginal Setback For The Prospect Of A March Cut

Skanda Amarnath — 6 min read

Core-Cast Core Inflation Core PCE Core Services Ex Housing CPI Recap Inflation Fed Policy Federal Reserve Monetary Policy

Note: The CPI Seasonal Factor Revisions Might Stoke Overreaction, But Our Views Will Be Less Changed

December Core-Cast Post-PCE: Nowcasted Progress Confirmed. The Path To A March Cut Becomes Clearer To The Public And Hinges On Data In February

December Core-Cast Post-GDP: H2 Revisions Should Drag Down Core PCE To A 2 Handle Year-over-Year (Condensed)

December Core-Cast Post-PPI: Shrugging Off The CPI Setback. A March Cut Re-Emerges As A Solid Base-Case

December Core-Cast Post-CPI: A Marginal Setback For The Prospect Of A March Cut

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