Participation and the Hot Labor Market
Labor force entry likely explains between ⅓ to ½ of the rise in US prime-age participation from its recent trough, and that the level and slope of labor force flows suggest prime-age participation may have even further to rise in the absence of exogenous shocks.
The Northern Frontier: What Prime-Age Employment In The US & Canada Reveal
Canada shows us that even when PA EPOP is pushed to new highs, wage and price acceleration does not necessarily follow or persist. It is time we rethink the interactions between labor markets and inflation.
The Quick and Dirty Case For Cutting 50bps at the June 2019 FOMC meeting
Whether you’ve been converted to #FloorGLI or you stick to the Fed’s preferred methods for framing economic developments, the case for the Fed to cut 50 basis points at the June FOMC meeting is underrated.
Floor It! Fixing the Fed’s Framework With Paychecks, Not Prices
The Federal Reserve should revise its framework to achieve at least a floor rate of gross labor income (GLI) growth, as opposed to simply tweaking its existing strategy of targeting consumer price inflation.
