The Floor GLI Framework in Today's Context
We provide an update on what our in-house monetary policy framework suggests about the appropriate trajectory for monetary policy using more reliable “real-time” measures of gross labor income
"Real Wages" and Aggregation: A Methodological Mess
“Real wages” are often presented as a neutral measure of the ability of households to buy definite quantities of real goods after adjusting for changes in both prices and wages. In reality, "real wages" explain far less about household economic well-being than these stories confidently imply.
Offsetting Persistent Inflationary Pressures With Disinflationary Healthcare Policy
Healthcare policy interventions could provide downward pressure on core PCE both in 2022 and in the years ahead. Given the salience of inflation, disinflationary healthcare policies should be a key priority for Congress and the Biden Administration alike.
Inflation Expectations: Three Stories in Search of Evidence
Despite widespread use by commentators and policymakers, the models commonly used to argue for the importance of "inflation expectations" are difficult to confirm empirically, and risk a hawkish policy bias.
Expecting Inflation: The Case of the 1950s
Whenever inflation becomes a part of political or economic discourse, policymakers and commentators instinctively reach for narratives and models drawn from the experience of the 1970s inflation. However, these models offer little explanation for even adjacent experiences of inflation.
