Unemployment is Up and Inflation has Fallen. A July Cut Should be on the Table.
As the July meeting approaches and Powell testifies in front of Congress at this week’s Humphrey Hawkins hearings, Powell and the rest of the Committee should keep the door open to a cut at the July meeting.
Labor Market Recap June 2024: Fed, Start Thinking About Cuts
With all of the softening in the labor market, it’s time for the Fed to actively discuss starting the process of rate normalization.
May Core-Cast Post-PCE: Right In Line With Our Nowcasts and Firming The Road To Beginning Cuts in September
Core-Cast is our nowcasting model to track the Fed's preferred inflation gauges before and through their release date. The heatmaps below give a comprehensive view of...
Post-June FOMC: By Overreacting Hawkishly, the Fed Risks Being Behind the Ball
If the next month delivers either another round of soft inflation data, or a weak jobs report, the FOMC should be prepared to deliver a cut in July. If they continue to delay beginning rate cuts to gain certainty, they should consider a 50 bps cut for their first cut.
May Inflation Preview: The Rent & OER Relief Are Poised To Add Downside Risk Throughout The Summer
This is a truncated version of the preview initially made available to our exclusive distribution this past Monday. Core-Cast is our nowcasting model to track the Fed'...
