Tracking Gross Labor Income In Real-Time Without Revisions
This article is intended to serve as a follow-up to the #FloorGLI proposal in “Floor It! Fixing the Fed’s Framework With Paychecks, Not Prices.” The official national accounts estimate of gross labor income (GLI) is based on the Quarterly Census of...
July 2024 FOMC Preview
While Fedspeak has certainly shifted during the past few weeks, few members are itching to cut rates at the July meeting.
Fire Prevention over Fire Fighting: The Case for Preemptive Cutting
Fire prevention—rather than fire fighting—is a better approach to risk management when it comes to the labor market. When it comes to unemployment risk, the Fed should be proactive and preemptive, not reactive.
The Fed's Other Supply-Side Dilemma: Today's Restrictive Policies Are Deteriorating Tomorrow's Housing Supply Outlook
Today's data largely confirmed what we've known for some time now: the Fed's restrictive policies are restricting the level and growth of...
June 2024 Inflation Preview: Can All Of The Downside Catalysts Arrive Before The July Meeting? Unlikely But Not Impossible
This is a delayed and truncated version of the monthly inflation preview we first share with MacroSuite subscribers. Core-Cast is our nowcasting model to track the Fed'...
