August 2024 Core-Cast Post-PCE: Confirmation of What The Fed Already Saw At The September FOMC Meeting
Most of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation gauges are sourced from Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, but Producer Price Index (PPI) input data is of increasing relevance, import price index (IPI) data can prove occasionally relevant. There are also some high-leverage...
The Fed Embraces Preemptive Action
“The time to support the labor market is when it’s strong, and not when you begin to see layoffs.”
The Fed Should Keep Unemployment Expectations Anchored
We will be hoping for two things at the September meeting this week: a 50 bps cut and minimal upwards revisions to the unemployment rate projections in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP).
September 2024 FOMC Preview
Our new baseline is a 50 bps cut with a total of 75 bps of cuts in the SEP for 2024. It’s a close call but we think a 50 bps cut is more likely than a 25 bps cut. We think a 50 bps point cut is the right move.
Labor Market Recap August 2024: Enough Weakness for 50 bps in September
Even though today’s report gave back some of the weakness in the July household survey, the reversion was slight. The August report meets the conditions we laid out yesterday for a 50 bps cut in September to play catch-up.
