July 2024 Core-Cast Post-PCE: No Real Surprises. Just 2 Basis Points Above Our Nowcasts
Most of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation gauges are sourced from Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, but Producer Price Index (PPI) input data is of increasing relevance, import price index (IPI) data can prove occasionally relevant. There are also some high-leverage...
Powell is Right: the FOMC Shouldn't Prematurely Endorse Gradualism
Almost as notable as the things Powell said were the things he did not. Between now and September, Fedspeak should focus on keeping the Committee’s options open to a 50 bps cut in September.
Even if Sahm Rules Might not be Right This Time, the Fed Should Still Cut
When it comes to the Fed policy today, the question of whether or not these rules are good at telling us if we’re currently in a recession is almost besides the point.
Labor Market Recap July 2024
A 50 basis point cut should be the base case after today and further slowdowns in the remaining jobs and inflation reports between now and the September meeting may bolster the case for more drastic action this year.
In Order to Avoid Falling Behind, 50bps in September Should be on the Table
By delaying rate cuts in search of certainty, the Fed risks being behind the ball. The FOMC should actively keep the option of a 50 basis point cut on the table between now and the September meeting.