Labor Market Recap September 2024: Good News
Make no mistake: this is good news. The Fed has made a commitment to not allowing the labor market to deteriorate further, and we’d rather not see that commitment tested.
A 50 Basis Point Cut In September: Why We Called It And Why We Called For It
The Federal Reserve began the process of normalizing interest rates at the September 18th, 2024 FOMC meeting. While the timing of the first rate cut was telegraphed well...
August 2024 Core-Cast Post-PCE: Confirmation of What The Fed Already Saw At The September FOMC Meeting
Most of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation gauges are sourced from Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, but Producer Price Index (PPI) input data is of increasing relevance,...
The Fed Embraces Preemptive Action
“The time to support the labor market is when it’s strong, and not when you begin to see layoffs.”
The Fed Should Keep Unemployment Expectations Anchored
We will be hoping for two things at the September meeting this week: a 50 bps cut and minimal upwards revisions to the unemployment rate projections in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP).
