Labor Market Recap October 2024: A Messy Report, but the Slowing Thru-line Remains
Due to the October payroll number marred by hurricanes and the Boeing strike, the real signal comes from the household survey (where those who are absent due to weather are still counted as employed) and the negative revisions to previous months.
September 2024 Core-Cast Post-PCE: Cooler Than We Expected But Still On The Hotter Side
Most of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation gauges are sourced from Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, but Producer Price Index (PPI) input data is of increasing relevance,...
Breaking Out of Stagnation: US Productivity Growth Is Clearly Beating Pre-Pandemic Trends Right Now
After taking into account data revisions and the Q3 GDP release, productivity growth is running stronger in the post-pandemic period, at about a 2% annualized pace. This stands...
Expanding the Anti-Inflation Toolkit: Launching Employ America's Healthcare Program
As economic risks shift from inflation toward the labor market, the Federal Reserve has begun the process of normalizing interest rates. While inflation is certainly lower than a...
Treasury's 45X Rule is a Positive Step for a More Resilient Supply Chain
While the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) has already successfully catalyzed investment, there is still more that it can do. Complementary policies addressing price volatility and supply chain vulnerability, as well as permitting reform and other policies, will be needed.
