November 2023 FOMC Preview: Long Yields Encourage Restraint
The Fed will leave its target range for the Federal Funds Rate at 5.25%-5.50%. The big news between the last meeting and this is the large raise in long yields, which has several committee members thinking that there will be less need to hike.
The Investment Picture: October 2023
What a great GDP print. 8.5% nominal growth, and 4.9% inflation-adjusted on the first revision.
September Core-Cast Post-PCE: Soft ECI Tea Leaves, Core PCE Still Poised To Underperform Fed Projections
Core-Cast is our nowcasting model to track the Fed's preferred inflation gauges before and through their release date. The heatmaps below give a comprehensive view of...
October Supply Chain Monitor
Rather than careening from disaster to disaster, we might just be having an economy for the time being. The pandemic showed clear deficiencies in capacity and capabilities across a range of sectors, most of which are taking steps to address those deficiencies now.
September Core-Cast Post-PPI Inflation Preview: Further Core PCE Progress Via PPI Revisions, Even As CPI May Look Hotter
An odd schedule of inflation releases this month, with PPI preceding CPI, makes for a more belated process for updating of our nowcasts carefully. Core-Cast is our nowcasting...
