Ten Thoughts On The Tribal “Transitory” Debate As We Enter 2024
There will be a time and a place for a more thorough retrospective of this still-unfolding (dis)inflationary episode, but it would be premature to make strong declarations at this juncture. We should all be thrilled by the past 6-7 months of...
November Core-Cast Post-PCE: What Made The Fed Dovish A Week Ago Becomes More Visible To The Public
Core-Cast is our nowcasting model to track the Fed's preferred inflation gauges before and through their release date. The heatmaps below give a comprehensive view of...
December 2023 FOMC Preview
The Fed will hold, but will still probably not want to talk too much about 2024.
November Inflation Preview: Headline Downside But Can Core PCE Keep A March "Normalization Cut" In Play?
Core-Cast is our nowcasting model to track the Fed's preferred inflation gauges before and through their release date. The heatmaps below give a comprehensive view of...
Labor Market Recap November 2023: Boring is Good
After a somewhat worrying October report, November’s labor market data shows lower recession risk.
