Labor Market Recap, February 2024: Back to "Slowing, but Strong"
After what appeared to be (on the surface and at first glance) a hot January, the labor market data for February 2024 signaled a return to the narrative we followed throughout last year: the labor market is slowing, but remains strong.
Jan Core-Cast Post-PCE: No Major Surprises But Jan-Feb Residual Seasonality Seems Likely To Headfake The Fed
Core-Cast is our nowcasting model to track the Fed's preferred inflation gauges before and through their release date. The heatmaps below give a comprehensive view of...
January Inflation Preview: High Stakes Data Releases With Fat Tails On Both Sides
Our inflation previews are typically released to the public with a delay relative to what we provide to our exclusive High Frequency Descriptive Analysis (HFDA) distribution subscribers. The...
Labor Market Recap January 2024: Weather Clouds Some Weakness
The headline January labor market data was strong, but there are still some signs of weakness under the surface.
It Wasn't AI: How Fiscal Supports, Supply Chain Healing, & Full Employment Explain Exceptional Productivity In 2023
The productivity data is messy and often should not be taken at face value. Our "Cautious Case For Productivity Optimism" in the summer of last year...
