The Investment Picture: Q1 2024
Overall, the Q1 GDP print looks weaker overall than the previous print, with investment growth correspondingly weaker.
Labor Market Recap April 2024: What Reacceleration?
The data is consistent with those hoping for a soft landing—and soft landing cuts.
May 2024 FOMC Preview
Every member that's spoken since the March meeting has expressed both a further desire to be patient on starting rate cuts (in response to the inflation data) and confidence that holding rates steady for longer will, on the margin, come with less downside risk to the labor market.
March Core-Cast Post-PCE: Rounding Out A Disappointing Q1
Core-Cast is our nowcasting model to track the Fed's preferred inflation gauges before and through their release date. The heatmaps below give a comprehensive view of...
March Inflation Preview: Relief Growing More Likely Over The Residual Seasonality Hump
Most of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation gauges are sourced from Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, but Producer Price Index (PPI) input data is of increasing relevance,...
