Financial Conditions Monitor: Positive Growth Surprises Get Priced In

We systematically track the evolution of financial conditions and their underlying drivers. We intend to share regular updates of these systematic monitors with our donors on a more exclusive basis (so long as it does not compromise our public mission). This monitor is a reflection of how we think macroeconomic and policy dynamics are affecting financial conditions and, by extension, our assessment of the economic growth outlook.

Takeaways:

The big story this past week was about US growth resilience: In terms of both markets and the actual data releases, growth outcomes re-rated to the upside. Manufacturing and housing look to be exiting contraction, while the jobless claims data seems less recessionary after adjusting for Massachusetts-specific distortions. It's not a surprise then to see higher equity prices, higher bond yields higher, and a stronger dollar. Our capital markets proxy of implied US growth improved robustly. All of this is consistent with what our activity dashboards have been signaling: a US economy that is simultaneously growing, slowing, and stabilizing.
Regional bank tail risks abated:

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