Financial Conditions Monitor: Market Doubts About A Skip Even As FCI Eases

We systematically track the evolution of financial conditions and their underlying drivers. We intend to share regular updates of these systematic monitors with our donors on a more exclusive basis (so long as it does not compromise our public mission). This monitor is a reflection of how we think macroeconomic and policy dynamics are affecting financial conditions and, by extension, our assessment of the economic growth outlook.

Takeaways:

Financial conditions are easing in response to the combination of resilient US growth and possibly a Fed that might be getting closer to the end of its hiking cycle (and the talk of cuts can take on a non-recessionary valence).
Even assuming some Fed Funds Rate upward drift this month (if bill issuance ramps up), the market is pricing in at least a 25% chance of a hike...

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