This monitor is a reflection of how we update our assessments of economic growth in real-time as we get meaningful updates from macroeconomic data releases. It provides a more timely and meaningful gauge of economic activity growth than what GDP and similar summary indicators provide. Please see here for more details about how to interpret this information. And reach out to us here if you would like to be subscribed to higher-frequency activity updates.
Summary: While the Atlanta Fed GDPNow reflects an exuberant view of GDP growth in Q3, we have to flag that our activity indices take a more measured view of recent data innovations. We have been flagging that underlying trends in activity growth are indeed improving and running above a pre-pandemic view of trend / potential growth, but this is not a runaway train either. GDP and productivity growth should impress in H2 but this dynamic is more consistent with supply-side improvement, rather than an inflationary impulse of its own.
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