This monitor is a reflection of how we update our assessments of economic growth in real-time as we get meaningful updates from macroeconomic data releases; please see here for more details about how to interpret this information.
Summary: We see more signs that the real economy is accelerating and that this is happening even as nominal measures of spending and income showing signs of further deceleration (as most recently implied by softer PPIs and CPIs). The constellation of dynamics also looks to be supportive of disinflationary growth insofar as growth is now driven by fixed investment (future supply) and less so current consumption (spot demand). Q2 GDP nowcasts/forecasts appear too low and the productivity trajectory is looking more encouraging.
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