Activity Update: Still A Stabilizing Slowdown (ISM Surveys, Auto Sales)

This monitor is a reflection of how we update our assessments of economic growth in real-time as we get meaningful updates from macroeconomic data releases. It provides a more timely and meaningful gauge of economic activity growth than what GDP and similar summary indicators provide. Please see here for more details about how to interpret this information.

Bottom Line

We keep getting more information that suggests that while the economy is continuing to slow down, it also isn't hitting a sudden stop in the face of recent pressures to the banking sector. ISM reports were both quantitatively and qualitatively solid, even suggesting a possible uptick in activity in Q3. Auto sales are also ramping, and optimistically suggest some supply-side healing is finally arriving. The industrial production release will be a better tell about supply-side health in the automobile sector, which remains an upside inflation risk.

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