Activity Update - More Stabilization (NY Fed Surveys, Retail Sales, IP, NAHB)

This monitor is a reflection of how we update our assessments of economic growth in real-time as we get meaningful updates from macroeconomic data releases. It provides a more timely and meaningful gauge of economic activity growth than what GDP and similar summary indicators provide. Please see here for more details about how to interpret this information.

Summary: The New York Fed's business surveys, retail sales, industrial production, and NAHB homebuilder sentiment highlight the "stabilization" message our activity indicators continue to signal. Yes, the US economy is still slowing in terms of underlying growth rate (strip out GDP noise and lags). But the glidepath looks gentle and the rotation looks healthy: nominal consumption is normalizing at the margin, while capex-sensitive sectors like manufacturing and housing are moving closer to expansionary territory.

Note: These measures are likely understating economic growth because they are incorporating a spike in Massachusetts initial jobless claims due to fraudulent application

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