This monitor is a reflection of how we update our assessments of economic growth in real-time as we get meaningful updates from macroeconomic data releases. It provides a more timely and meaningful gauge of economic activity growth than what GDP and similar summary indicators provide. Please see here for more details about how to interpret this information. And reach out to us here if you would like to be subscribed to higher-frequency activity updates.
Summary: Amidst patchy "soft" survey data from regional Feds (and Markit PMIs), economic growth is on reasonably solid footing and there is increased evidence of supply-side improvement. Productivity data could look meaningfully better in Q2 and Q3 as a result of capital deepening: expanded real fixed capital formation in structures and equipment relative to employment.
The full version of this Activity Monitor is made available exclusively for our Premium Donors. To view the full version, sign up here for a 30-day free trial or contact us for more information.
