Activity Update: Consumption & Services Trends Are Normalizing But The Supply Side Is Booming - July 29, 2023

This monitor is a reflection of how we update our assessments of economic growth in real-time as we get meaningful updates from macroeconomic data releases. It provides a more timely and meaningful gauge of economic activity growth than what GDP and similar summary indicators provide. Please see here for more details about how to interpret this information. And reach out to us here if you would like to be subscribed to higher-frequency activity updates.

Summary: The real economy is continuing to accelerate even as nominal spending on output is largely still decelerating. Wages, prices, and nominal aggregates are largely growing at a slower pace, with the lone area of nominal acceleration stemming from the effects of strong employment growth (more people earning paychecks that can be spent subsequently).

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