Labor Market Recap January 2025: A Solid Report, but Risks Ahead
The labor market might be solid right now, but the composition of job growth in the future looks increasingly worrying.
December 2024 Core-Cast Post-PCE: Not Our Finest Nowcasting Cycle. Optimistic Outcomes Grow More Plausible For The Fed
Most of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation gauges are sourced from Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, but Producer Price Index (PPI) input data is of increasing relevance,...
January 2025 FOMC Preview
If you enjoy our content and would like to support our work, we offer a premium, high-frequency macro research service, Macro Suite. If you’re interested in gaining...
To Combat Healthcare Inflation, Reconciliation Should Go Big on Site-Neutral Medicare Payments
As the 119th Congress convenes, the House Budget Committee is considering several policies to cut federal spending by more than $5 trillion. One reported proposal is a potential...
Labor Market Recap December 2024: Relief, for Now
The further slowing we were worried about last month, particularly in the prime-age employment rate, did not materialize. This sets back expectations for earlier and more rate cuts this year, but it’s certainly a good report for anyone concerned about the left tail of labor market risk.
