Labor Market Recap May 2024: Still Cool
The totality of the evidence points more towards a cooling (but still good!) labor market than heating up, despite the payroll prints.
Preston Mui
131 posts
Paid-members
Fedspeak Monitor 6/2/24
Our baseline projection has the median June dot at two cuts, but it's on a knife-edge with one cut now.
Paid-members
Fedspeak Monitor 5/24/24
We finally heard from Waller this week in two speeches, one covering the recent economic data and another about his thoughts on r-star.
Paid-members
Fedspeak Monitor 5/19/24: The First Steps Towards Greater Confidence
The committee sounds pretty relieved after the April inflation numbers. While none of them are suddenly at the point of "great confidence" we've all been waiting for, they are nonetheless encouraged by the recent data.
Paid-members
Fedspeak Monitor 5/12/24
We heard from voices across the hawkish-dovish spectrum today, continuing to highlight the divergence of views in the committee.
