September 2024 FOMC Preview
Our new baseline is a 50 bps cut with a total of 75 bps of cuts in the SEP for 2024. It’s a close call but we think a 50 bps cut is more likely than a 25 bps cut. We think a 50 bps point cut is the right move.
Preston Mui
131 posts
Paid-members
Fedspeak Monitor: 9/8/24
It's the last week of Fedspeak before the blackout period for the September meeting. Everyone speaking this week is on board with Powell's assessment that the labor market is at least balanced.
Labor Market Recap August 2024: Enough Weakness for 50 bps in September
Even though today’s report gave back some of the weakness in the July household survey, the reversion was slight. The August report meets the conditions we laid out yesterday for a 50 bps cut in September to play catch-up.
Paid-members
Fedspeak Monitor 9/2/24
A quiet week after Jackson Hole. What we did hear this past week showed that Powell has some convincing to do on the Committee.
Powell is Right: the FOMC Shouldn't Prematurely Endorse Gradualism
Almost as notable as the things Powell said were the things he did not. Between now and September, Fedspeak should focus on keeping the Committee’s options open to a 50 bps cut in September.
