A Labor Supply Shock? Much ado has been made about the shortfall in the headline employment-to-population ratio and the headline labor force participation rate of late. Many have claimed that recent wage and price pressures trace back to a “labor supply shock”...
This is the second piece of our vacancies series. In this piece, we refute specific vacancy-backed arguments that the Federal Reserve will need to engineer a recession in order to bring inflation under control.
The Federal Reserve has given job vacancy data center stage in assessing the strength of the labor market. The theoretical and empirical issues with vacancies data show that this is a mistake.
When we disaggregate the aggregate inflation statistics, we find that the sources of high inflation in the US and Europe are different.
In this first piece of a series, we’re going to walk through an overview of the ways inflation statistics can diverge between countries and demonstrate just how difficult it is to establish apples-to-apples comparisons between aggregate inflation measures in different countries.
