This is the first of our Fed Research Roundup series. In this post, we examine the question of whether monetary policy constrains the supply-side, and what that means for inflation.
An earlier version of this piece erroneously attributed this to the wrong author. The author is Preston Mui. Last Friday, we learned that the unemployment rate in August...
The August 2023 labor market data points to a labor market that, while strong and not recessionary, is certainly slowing down more starkly than earlier this year. The...
In a recent Barron’s article, I examined why last year’s predictions that fighting inflation would require an increase in the unemployment rate went so wrong. The flaws in these predictions can be traced back to three ideas: first, that vacancies are a good measure of labor market tightness; second
The July 2023 labor market data continues to confirm the story we’ve been telling for months: while slowing down, the labor market remains strong, with high levels...
