Paid-members
Fedspeak Monitor, 6/21/24
Inflation optimism among the doves is back, but the hawks will want to see many months of good inflation before they're sure.
Preston Mui
165 postsPost-June FOMC: By Overreacting Hawkishly, the Fed Risks Being Behind the Ball
If the next month delivers either another round of soft inflation data, or a weak jobs report, the FOMC should be prepared to deliver a cut in July. If they continue to delay beginning rate cuts to gain certainty, they should consider a 50 bps cut for their first cut.
Paid-members
Fedspeak Monitor 6/16/24
Our view of where the new dots are.
June 2024 FOMC Preview
With the labor market still strong and April inflation representing an improvement over Q1 but still not good enough, the committee is in “looking for confidence” mode.
Labor Market Recap May 2024: Still Cool
The totality of the evidence points more towards a cooling (but still good!) labor market than heating up, despite the payroll prints.
