The February ISM Manufacturing PMIs suggest a slowdown, but the commentary indicates that the slowdown is both expected, and not an indication of further erosion in the demand picture.
Some commentators have noted that supply-side disinflation may be reaching an end point, but it is also clear that the supply-side pricing pressures of the pandemic era are over.
Overall industrial production stayed flat year over year in the January data, and shrank by 0.1% month over month.
The soft data for January came in strong following a blockbuster Q4 GDP report and a lackluster January jobs report. Both ISM Services and Manufacturing saw upturns relative to their December reports.
GDP growth this quarter was supported by consumption and government spending, while investment played a more muted role.
